Research examines how combining weak predictive signals can improve equity risk premium forecasting

CHICAGO, Aug. 18, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Hull Tactical Asset Allocation today announced that Micro Alphas, research authored by Blair Hull, Petra Bakosova, François Cocquemas, Euan Sinclair and Petri Fast, has been published in the August 2026 issue of The Journal of Portfolio Management.

The paper introduces the concept of “micro alphas”—predictive signals that may be too weak to be meaningful individually but can become economically useful when combined. The authors use a machine-learning framework incorporating elastic net regularization and walk-forward validation to aggregate diverse, time-varying signals while seeking to control overfitting.

“Markets are highly competitive, which makes large, persistent predictive edges difficult to find,” said Euan Sinclair, Senior Financial Engineer at Hull Tactical and co-author of the paper. “Rather than searching for one extraordinarily powerful signal, our research asks whether many small and imperfect signals can be combined systematically to create something economically meaningful.”

The research also finds that the model’s predictive value tends to strengthen during periods of elevated volatility and market stress, when weak signals may become more informative in combination.

“Micro alphas reflect how we think about quantitative research more broadly,” said Petra Bakosova, CEO of Hull Tactical. “Markets evolve, signals evolve, and the investment process has to evolve with them.”

To read Micro Alphas, visit: https://www.pm-research.com/content/iijpormgmt/52/9/139

About Hull Tactical

 Hull Tactical (HTAA, LLC) is a registered investment adviser founded in 2013 focused on quantitative asset management. The firm develops systematic investment strategies by combining diverse predictive signals into models designed to adapt to changing market conditions. HTAA is committed to advancing its investment process through quantitative research and data science.

Disclaimer

This document does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting, or other material considerations. To the extent that the reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to their specific portfolio or situation, prospective investors are encouraged to contact HTAA or consult with the professional advisor of their choosing.

Except where otherwise indicated, the information contained in this material is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation of such material and not as of the date of distribution of any future date. Recipients should not rely on this material in making any future investment decision.

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hull-tacticals-micro-alphas-research-published-in-the-journal-of-portfolio-management-302853177.html

SOURCE Hull Tactical Asset Allocation